17th June
Trade review from 16th:
Took losses on EURUSD shorts, Euro spike was odd to me given the talk from Lagarde about new QE “anti-fragmentation” tool. I guess the market was trading on reduced US hikes in July and ECB only starting their hikes? I’ve no idea but I lost on a number of small trades for 250 pips. Ofc Euro heading south today, back near lows of 1.04. Parity seems inevitable to me.
45 points profit on Crude.
MORNING UPDATE
Inflation is raging in the Eurozone (8.8% yoy) where ECB are planning a 25bps hike next month AND to ramp up bond purchases under a new QE program called "anti-fragmentation". As biggest component of DXY I expect further USD strength, which algos believe is negative for PMs.
BoJ came out dovish today and caused USDJPY to rally 250 pips. This would have been an easy trade but it was not on my watchlist.
Just tweeted: I would describe the PM action as being "on the floor" still. Massive move down from 18th April to 13th May and unable to recapture even the first Fib retracement which is 22.80 silver and 1869 gold.
EVENING UPDATE
Took two silly longs in Crude this morning, I was influenced by the excellent Palisades Gold Radio Twitter Spaces where they talk a lot about energy cliff. Maybe longer-term but action was too stretched on Crude as Gary Savage rightly calls out in his video today.
Greg Mannarino is saying that the Fed and ECB have been buying bonds which would explain the US 10Y moving aggressively from 3.5% to 3.2% yesterday.