OPEN TRADES.
Gold/Silver: I am holding underwater longs with PMs grinding upwards since UK market close yesterday and overnight. I am suspicious of this movement as it likely means the banks are stepping away to let price rise a little and reset RSI into FOMC so they can slam it again. Gary Savage states today “it’s starting to look like yesterday completed a half cycle low in metals. However gold has to break and close above the intermediate down trend line during the advancing phase of the intermediate cycle”. I make this a daily close above 1860.
FX: My small GBP long from yesterday got stopped out for 35pip loss as they took out stops under 1.2. Cable traded down to 1.936. This is not at all surprising. It was a bad trade to enter at first approach to the support zone. I re-entered long this morning at 1.206.
Stocks: My limit buy for Yellow Cake triggered at 340, currently 348 so nicely in profit immediately which is what a good trade should do.
WATCH LIST
FOMC today. The Fed floated out 75bps so that must be the base case. I will be shocked if they only do 50bps but if so I can see stocks clawing back some losses.
OIL: Chart is looking like it wants to roll-over which would provide relief for Western economies and global inflation. The bounce from an SFP low to 116.63 is very weak. Currently 118.29. I would be surprised if the cartel banks have not been instructed to attempt to control price. Diamond top pattern is forming, clearly visible on the 1H, taking a small short at 118.84.
USD: It seems the ECB is looking to restart QE to buy Italian bonds. Madness when facing surging inflation. DXY likely to move higher on this given the EURO weighting. Higher DXY usually triggers algos to sell gold , however, I expect to see both rising in tandem at some point.
Commodities: Commodities in general have been sold recently. Quite a few are approaching support zones, Copper, Aluminium from a quick review. Adding to watch-list. UPDATE: I am passing on Aluminium for now, monthly chart looks bad, it seems to trend for 24-28months and we are only 3 months into a new downtrend. I don’t see support until 2280-2320 currently 2586.